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Usually, the NFL's Coach of the Year honor adheres to a straightforward formula. It often serves as a form of mea culpa. We regret we got wrong your franchise in our preseason forecasts.

On paper, it's a direct line: the coach who orchestrated the biggest turnaround receives the award. However, it fuels an yearly argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly honoring excellent coaching or simply the most shocking shock.

However this year's race is fundamentally different. The list of candidates is exceptionally deep. It has been the year of turnarounds. The league has been chaotic, with recent division champions falling away and recent strugglers rising in unison. Under an ordinary season, Sean Payton guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the clear favorite. Yet in this turbulent and thrilling season, he's facing five other elite coaches.

This is how the projected vote should look.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters love signal-callers. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you fix a franchise QB, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson hasn't just corrected Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. Given a proper ecosystem, the QB has been given the opportunity to showcase his rare ability. From midseason onward, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's sustained dominance. With his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly confident, far less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the gameplan instead of going rogue. It is an offense built entirely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a steady helping of play-action and a imaginative passing attack that creates wide-open receivers consistently. The QB has thrived. And when openings haven't been there, he's been able to create big plays out of nothing.

The coach arrived to Chicago with a clear offensive philosophy. Almost each decision – overhauling the trenches, utilizing the tight ends, turning the QB into a rhythm passer – has succeeded. That's uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer still for a leader who entered the building with the immense expectations he did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the hottest candidate on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a leader, there are no guarantees. Somehow, he has met the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a scheme genius but the kind of culture builder that can breathe new life into an franchise.

During a ordinary season, he would be the overwhelming choice. Yet the current is not a typical year!

The area where Johnson's case runs slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears presently rank in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are living on takeaways, and takeaways are notoriously fickle. Defensive minds can emphasise ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. He is on the list because the offensive production is legitimate. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defense's work. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be several wins worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is in place for sustained success. However he comes up just short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable situation to Johnson. He's another first-time leader who has orchestrated a rapid resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest overall football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defensive unit that now sits at number five in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more notably, he has excelled at the off-field aspects, which was not a certainty after his early public appearances and some of his preseason decisions.

The coach walked into Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. Unlike Johnson, who packed their staff with the perfect staff cocktail of youth and veteran savvy, Coen hired first-timers. From the head coach on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That kind of approach is intriguing in theory, but frequently fails in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is learning a new job in real-time. Yet he has pulled the entire group and all elements into sync.

Following an early hot beginning, there was a possibility that the campaign would veer off the rails. A mid-year setback caused the team wobbling once more. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. Coen didn't. Rather, he streamlined things. The offense stopped chasing explosive plays and started seeking reliable ones. The coach recentered the offense around key players and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his legs more.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three seed. Coen gets the slightest knock in the standings because he took over a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Every Strong of the Year case has a pivotal moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback move.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a different signal-caller and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have derailed the campaign in October. Instead, it shaped it. Through the mid point of the year, the new QB was an MVP front-runner. He has cooled off since that time, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the latter part of the season, putting him just one spot ahead of other QBs.

Still