Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis caused by the introduction of a new 28-article proposal for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare
The chain of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the recent timeframe. By day, political struggles are conducted: hopeful statements are released from multiple capitals. Immense energy is devoted on managing specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "resolution".
After-Dark Attacks
As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from across the border, a ability enabled by current data. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been scrambled to counter approaching aerial threats streaked across the sky – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by European allies.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: several firings targeted at a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably provided by Western nations. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly gives way to grim resignation: perhaps the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from ruin and another blackout.
Ongoing Risks
Not long after, a heavy machine gun fired at a drone in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – probably allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its target.
Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the early updates: seven people killed, damage and infrastructure problems in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a need that regional partners are clearly incapable to replace in the short term.
Failed Diplomacy
The comprehensive proposal from Washington provoked deep reactions, discussion and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.
Every new proposal from Washington follows the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, effectively counters. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This cycle will, undoubtedly, persist.
Strategic Calculations
It is easy to blame certain parties of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington operates on a principle well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House presumes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from believing that the situation will not evolve additionally in its favour in the coming year.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Moscow is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the result.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding lives and land but avoiding a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its favour.
Existing Situation
Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not move to internal issues. And although their objective will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.
These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.
Assessment and Future
It took a just a single week to eliminate the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.
While new initiatives based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, primarily depend on sustained allied backing.
