A decade following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that split the nation and unleashed turmoil, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the political, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an highly polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in academia but very few elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unity or the status quo. They authors two pieces that strive for objectivity in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and social figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Debate implies an acceptance of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate say they prefer unity but reject increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will win here and the other side will in the end be defeated but both parties has got valuable insights to learn from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should participate in the debate, urged O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
